Bitcoin price drop to $113K: last big discount before new highs
Bitcoin price drop to $113K could be the final bargain before the next rally. Here’s the data—ETFs, halving, and on-chain metrics—supporting it.
Is the Bitcoin price drop to $113K truly the last significant discount before new highs? Recent price action puts BTC in a tight consolidation band around $111K–$115K, roughly 5–10% under its recent peak, as markets weigh macro policy shifts and crypto-native flows. Multiple reputable outlets reported Bitcoin trading near this range over the past week, with dips to ~$111K and bounces toward ~$115K, framing the present move as a mild correction inside a larger uptrend.
In this deep dive, we’ll unpack why a Bitcoin price drop to $113K may represent a cyclical “gift” for patient investors rather than a warning of a larger breakdown. We’ll connect macro drivers (like potential Fed rate cuts), structural tailwinds (spot ETF demand), and on-chain signals (illiquid supply, long-term holder behavior, MVRV) to build a comprehensive case for why this dip could be the last “big discount” before BTC stretches to new highs.
Bitcoin price drops to $113K—context in one chart.
In mid-September 2025, multiple market reports placed Bitcoin around the $111K–$115K area. This zone is ~8% off last month’s record, according to Barron’s, and in line with Economic Times’ spot checks. That’s hardly a capitulation; it’s a healthy breather by historical standards.
Zooming out, 2025’s average BTC close sits well below current prints, underscoring how far the market has already come and how normal mini-pullbacks are on the way up. While third-party chart libraries differ slightly by methodology, the message rhymes: the uptrend remains intact, and drawdowns of ~10% are routine fuel for trend continuation.
Why this dip may be the””last big discount”
Post-halving supply squeeze is now active
Bitcoin’s most reliable structural catalyst—the halving—cut new issuance from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block on April 19–20, 2024. Historically, that supply shock doesn’t peak on day one; it plays out over quarters as fewer new coins meet persistent demand. With issuance halved and miners selling fewer new coins per day, the market needs less incremental buy-pressure to trend up.
Spot ETF demand creates a persistent bid.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have repeatedly posted net inflows in 2024–2025, creating a steady “vacuum cleaner” for BTC liquidity on strong days. Even in a choppy September, recent prints show daily net inflows backstopping price—evidence of buy-the-dip behavior among institutions and advisors allocating through ETFs. Over $300M of net inflows in a single session last week illustrate that the pipeline of demand isn’t empty.
Illiquid supply keeps climbing.g
CoinDesk recently highlighted that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply (coins held in wallets with little spending history) has hit record levels near 14.3M BTC, even after a ~15% drawdown from August’s peak. Growing illiquid balances imply a larger fraction of supply is in strong hands—reducing float and amplifying the price impact of fresh demand. A Bitcoin price drop to $113K against rising illiquid supply looks more like an opportunity than a risk.
Long-term vs short-term holder rotation is on schedule
Glassnode and other analytics providers have noted a classic distribution/rotation pattern this cycle: long-term holders gradually sell into strength while newer entrants absorb supply. That transition—usually seen before or during expansions to new highs—suggests the market is digesting overhead supply now to run cleaner later.
On-chain metrics: What MVRV and realized metrics are signaling
The MVRV ratio (market value vs. realized value) remains a workhorse metric for identifying overheated and undervalued zones across Bitcoin cycles. While precise “sell” thresholds evolve, MVRV and its Z-Score variant have historically flagged tops only once they stretch into statistically extreme territory. Mid-cycle consolidations, like the current one, often resolve higher when MVRV sits below peak froth levels.
Why it matters for a Bitcoin price drop to $113K:
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If market price sits modestly above realized price, corrections tend to be shakeouts—not macro tops.
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As illiquid supply grows and ETF demand persists, it takes less marginal capital to lift the price above consolidation bands.
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MVRV not flashing “red” suggests upside asymmetry remains intact.
Put: on-chain doesn’t scream “cycle top.” It appears to be range digestion amid strong fundamentals.
Macro backdrop: From headwind to tailwind
Rates and risk appetite
Crypto, like other risk assets, is sensitive to interest-rate expectations. September headlines highlight investor caution into the next Federal Reserve decision. Yet if the Fed delivers or signals more easing, liquidity conditions improve—and historically, that helps high-beta assets like BTC. Markets in mid-September were already pricing a cut; an accommodative path into year-end would underpin any bid that emerges under $115K.
The “September curse” isn’t destiny anymore
Seasonally, September has often been weak for BTC. But structure has changed: spot ETFs channel retirement and advisory capital on autopilot, and post-halving supply is thinner. Several institutional outlooks this month framed September as an opportunity, with $108K–$125K ranges and $100K marked as a key defense line. In that context, a Bitcoin price drop to $113K sits near the middle of consensus bands rather than at the edge of fear.
Technical picture: Consolidation, not capitulation
Short-term charts show BTC coiling into symmetrical triangle-style ranges around $111K–$115K. Consolidations after major rallies often precede trend continuation—especially when higher lows form and spot ETF flows remain net positive. The present pattern mirrors classic bull-flag behavior where volatility compresses, weak hands rotate, and a fresh leg starts once resistance breaks.
What to watch next:
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Range high breakouts above ~$115K–$118K could trigger momentum flows.
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Range defenses near $108K–$110K would reinforce dip-buying footprints that ETFs have already hinted at.
Risk checks—what could invalidate the “last discount” case?
A balanced approach means mapping the risks that could turn a Bitcoin price drop to $113K into a deeper drawdown:
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Macro shock: A hawkish surprise or growth scare could sap risk appetite, widening the correction.
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ETF net outflows: While recent prints swung positive, a sustained streak of outflows would remove a key structural bid.
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Distribution overshoot: If long-term holders accelerate distribution faster than new demand absorbs it, the price could revisit psychological levels (e.g., $100K).
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Regulatory headlines: Adverse policy moves have historically introduced volatility skew to the downside.
Even with these risks, the current set-up still favors the “discount” interpretation because issuance is permanently lower post-halving, the ETF demand rail now exists, and illiquid supply keeps rising.
Strategy corner—navigating a Bitcoin price drop to $113K
Dollar-cost average (DCA) through the range
With ETFs absorbing dips and on-chain not flashing extremes, spreading entries between $108K and $115K can reduce timing risk while keeping exposure to a potential breakout. (Not financial advice—educational only.)
Use realized price and MVRV as sanity checks.
Track where the market price sits relative to the realized price and keep an eye on MVRV / MVRV-Z for overheating signs. If MVRV remains well below historic blow-off zones during rallies, the path of least resistance castayin up.
Respect key invalidation levels
For traders, a clean, daily close below the range’s lower bound (~$108K) would question the immediate “last discount” thesis and open the door to testing deeper supports flagged by institutional outlooks.
Conclusion—turning hesitation into a plan
If history is a guide, the Bitcoin price drop to $113K looks less like a red flag and more like a textbook consolidation before a potential push to new highs. With issuance permanently lower post-halving, ETFs backfilling dips, and illiquid supply climbing, the structural case remains bullish. Keep an eye on macro catalysts (Fed path), validate with on-chain gauges (MVRV/realized metrics), and consider systematic entries if you’re building exposure.
See More: Bitcoin price prediction: will BTC rise or fall after Fed rate cuts
